HIGHLIGHTED NEWS
According to announcements from the Ministry of Finance, Vietnam’s domestic macroeconomic conditions in Q1/2025 have shown many positive signs. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q1 increased by 6.93% compared to the same period in 2024. Total import-export turnover in the first three months reached USD 202.52 billion, up 13.7% year-on-year; the trade surplus stood at USD 3.16 billion; exports rose by 10.6%, while imports grew by 17%. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in Q1/2025 is estimated to have increased by 7.8% compared to the same period last year. Key contributors to this growth include the processing and manufacturing industries, as well as electricity production and distribution, and utilities. As of the end of March 2025, total registered foreign direct investment (FDI) into Vietnam reached USD 10.98 billion, up 34.7% year-on-year. Credit growth in Q1/2025 reached 3.93%, 2.5 times higher than the 1.42% growth in the same period last year. The number of businesses resuming operations in Q1/2025 surged by 54.8% compared to Q1/2024, while the number of newly registered enterprises declined by 4%. Alongside the economic recovery, prices and inflation were relatively well-controlled. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March 2025 decreased by 0.03% from the previous month due to falling global oil and rice prices and rose by 3.13% year-on-year. On average, core inflation in Q1/2025 rose by 3.01% year-on-year, lower than the overall average CPI increase of 3.22%, mainly due to higher prices of food, electricity, and healthcare services. Additionally, the domestic gold price index in March 2025 recorded a sharp increase of 32.68% compared to the same period in 2024.
TRADING STRATEGY
The stock market continued its downward trend, retreating to the 1,210-point level, with liquidity reaching a record high not seen in years. Selling pressure remains intense, particularly in the mid- and small-cap stock groups. However, some divergence among large-cap stocks has provided partial support to the overall index. The VN-Index is expected to continue fluctuating within a wide range today and is likely to hold above the 1,180-point mark.
The stock market is currently under considerable downward pressure due to the U.S. tariff policy targeting more than 60 countries and territories worldwide. Multilateral trade negotiations are expected to continue through mid-April 2025 in an effort to stabilize trade in particular and the global economy in general. This is likely to be a period during which the domestic market experiences strong net selling pressure from foreign investors. As such, investors are advised to remain cautious, prioritize risk management, and stay updated with official information. At the same time, they should screen for investment opportunities in sectors that are less affected by tariffs until official announcements and new policies come into effect.
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