HIGHLIGHTED NEWS
During his state visit to China, on the afternoon of April 15th, General Secretary and President To Lam and Chinese Premier Li Qiang agreed to promote the development of relations based on the "six more" orientation. Vietnam proposed elevating cooperation in economics, trade, investment, and tourism; promoting infrastructure development, especially railways; and expanding capital and technology support. Conversely, China committed to increasing imports of Vietnamese agricultural products, encouraging high-quality investment, and developing stable supply chains.
Affected by the Middle East conflict, Vietnam's growth in 2026 will essentially be divided into three scenarios. The baseline scenario (60%) forecasts a GDP decrease of 0.6–0.8 percentage points, reaching approximately 9-9.2%, with slight decreases in exports and FDI. The negative scenario (30%) assumes that if the conflict spreads, GDP could fall by 0.8–1.2 percentage points, and exports by 2 percentage points. Finally, the worst-case scenario (10%) occurs when hostilities last for a whole year, with GDP falling by 1.2–1.5 percentage points, exports by more than 3 percentage points, and FDI declining sharply.
TRADING STRATEGY
The stock market continued its upward trend, closing above 1,800 points with improved returns compared to the previous trading session. The market's performance can be clearly defined as capital flows are concentrating more on individual stocks in the large-cap real estate and banking sectors. Meanwhile, selling pressure tends to increase in small and medium-sized chemical stocks, especially those in specialized basic resources, industrial services, construction, and materials. The VN-Index is currently likely to fluctuate around the 1,790-1,815 point range.
The market saw its fourth consecutive positive gain and officially entered the physiological resistance zone around 1,800 points. Importantly, selling pressure is clearly evident as it subsides, with a tendency towards an increase in the number of stocks that have just recovered but have not improved their liquidity. Foreign investors increased net selling, but only concentrated on a few specific stocks. The VN-Index is currently showing signs of decline after opening a "gap" in the index. Therefore, the index's fluctuations may not fully reflect the market's strength or guarantee short-term investment opportunities unless there are factors driving it from highly publicized stocks or widespread capital flows. Investors should control their portfolios, limit new purchases (especially new buying positions), and prioritize holding positions for medium- and long-term strategic portfolios during minor dips and cooling-offs in the recovery process.
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