HIGHLIGHTS
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) reported that in 2024, the banking system recorded a record-high gap of VND 1.2 quadrillion between deposit balances (up 9.06% to nearly VND 14.7 quadrillion) and credit balances (up 13.82% to over VND 15.4 quadrillion). With the average deposit interest rate for terms under 12 months at a low 5.1% per year, capital has shifted to more attractive investment channels such as gold (up 28.6% year-end 2023), real estate, and stocks. This large gap has pushed the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of many banks near the 85% ceiling, putting significant pressure on smaller commercial banks. In 2025, deposit interest rates are expected to rise slightly by 30–100 basis points, depending on the banking group, to balance cash flows amid global economic fluctuations.
TRADING STRATEGY
The stock market extended its recovery for a second consecutive session, with the VN-Index closing at 1,242 points and liquidity remaining at the weekly average. Cash flow continues to improve across the market, driven by the financial services, industrial, technology, and basic resources sectors. Today, the VN-Index is expected to hover in the 1,245–1,250 point range.
The market is in a short-term recovery trend, targeting the resistance zone of 1,255–1,260 points. While foreign investor selling pressure remains high and overall sentiment cautious ahead of the holiday season, cash flows are relatively stable. This is attributed to many fundamental stocks being discounted to attractive levels compared to valuations and growth expectations for 2025. Investors should focus on their strategic portfolios, prioritize controlled accumulation, and adopt a medium-term perspective based on fundamentals rather than short-term market fluctuations.
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