HIGHLIGHTED NEWS
According to the Ministry of Construction, the country recorded 92,004 successful real estate transactions in the third quarter of 2026, an 8% decrease from the previous quarter. Inventory levels across 27 of the 34 surveyed localities reached approximately 51,950 housing units and land plots, showing an upward trend. While prices for apartments and land plots on the secondary market declined compared to the second quarter, housing prices in major urban areas remained beyond the financial reach of many citizens. By the end of August, outstanding real estate credit stood at approximately VND 5.2 quadrillion—a 9.49% increase from the end of 2025—accounting for over 25% of the economy's total outstanding credit. Meanwhile, the pace of social housing development remained sluggish, with 46,962 units completed in the first nine months of the year, meeting 48% of the annual target.
UOB raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam from 8.5% to 9.2% after third-quarter GDP grew by 9.95% year-on-year, bringing growth for the first nine months to 9.01%. UOB projects fourth-quarter GDP growth at 9.7%—driven by public investment, exports, and FDI—though this remains below the 12.5–13% rate required to achieve the full-year target of 10%. The bank also revised its 2027 growth forecast up from 8.4% to 8.8% and its 2026 inflation forecast from 4.1% to 4.7%. Despite mounting pressure for monetary tightening, UOB expects the State Bank of Vietnam to maintain the refinancing rate at 4.5% through the end of 2027.
TRADING STRATEGY
The stock market underwent a slight correction, closing at 1,719.42 points with liquidity falling below the 20-session average. The VN-Index experienced volatility and tug-of-war dynamics throughout the session, driven by widespread selling pressure across most sectors—including Retail, Technology, Oil & Gas, Basic Materials, Financial Services, and Construction & Materials. However, gains in select large-cap stocks within the VN30, Banking, Real Estate, and Personal & Household Goods sectors helped mitigate the decline and provided support to the overall index. Foreign investors reduced the scale of their net selling compared to the previous session. The VN-Index remains in a short-term corrective trend as cautious capital flows have yet to stabilize. The market is likely to continue fluctuating within a wide range around the 1,720–1,740 support zone, aiming to balance supply and demand before staging a recovery.
Today, the VN-Index may fluctuate within the 1,710–1,735 point range. Short-term investors should closely monitor market developments, maintain a focused portfolio allocation, and avoid over-diversification or chasing prices during recovery signals. Meanwhile, medium- to long-term investors may continue holding stocks with promising business growth prospects for the second half of 2026.
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